Caucus victory finally gives Obama
more Texan delegates than Clinton
Pledged delegates for O & C:
primary : O 61, C 65
Texan caucus : O 38, C 29
TOTAL : O 99, C 94
(CNN) – has won the Democratic caucuses and will get more delegates out of the state than his rival, , who won the state’s primary, according to CNN estimates.
Under the ’s complex delegate selection plan, Texas voters participated in both a primary and caucuses on March 4. Two-thirds of the state’s 193 delegates were at stake at the primary, while the remaining third were decided by the caucuses.
An additional 35 superdelegates were not tied to either contest. Clinton, of , defeated Obama in the primary by a 51-47 percent margin.
But results of the caucuses were up in the air on election night and for several days afterward, due to state party rules that did not require local caucus officials to report their results to a centralized location.
Partial caucus results, representing 41 percent of all caucus precincts, showed Obama last week with 56 percent of the county-level delegates chosen at the caucuses to 44 percent for Clinton.
The state party says it will not be able to provide a further breakdown of the caucus results from March 4.
After a comprehensive review of these results, CNN estimates that Obama won more support from caucus-goers than Clinton.
Based on the state party’s tally, Obama’s caucus victory translates into 38 national convention delegates, compared to 29 for Clinton.
And though Clinton won more delegates than Obama in the primary, 65 to 61, Obama’s wider delegate margin in the caucuses gives him the overall statewide delegate lead, 99 to 94 – or once superdelegate endorsements are factored in, 109 to 106.
CNN’s estimate is based on a statistical review, which combined the county-level results provided by the state party with data from the U.S. Census, exit polls and telephone surveys.
That analysis showed that the counties that reported data to the state party last week appear to be a representative cross-section of the Texas population.
The analysis also indicates that areas that were won by Obama reported results at essentially the same rate as areas that were won by Clinton.
Every procedure used to statistically model the outcome of the caucuses indicated that Obama had more support than Clinton.
The next step in the delegate-selection process will occur on March 29, when the county-level delegates chosen at the March 4 caucuses will meet in county conventions held across the state.
CNN will closely monitor those events and will adjust its delegate estimate for Obama and Clinton, if necessary, based on those results at that time.