From purplish to bluish


Quinnipiac poll: Obama
leads in 4 swing states



17% in Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain 37
13% in Wisconsin: Obama 52, McCain 39
6% in Michigan: Obama 48, McCain 42
5% in Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44


WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The purple states are now slowly turning to the blue corner.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in four battleground states, according to a survey on the so-called swing states released on Thursday that pollsters said could point to a broad Obama victory in November.
The Quinnipiac University poll found Obama leading McCain in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, which strategists view as among the closely fought states that could determine the outcome of the race.
“If these numbers were to hold, it would be very difficult to see how Senator Obama doesn’t win the presidency by a very comfortable margin,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll.
The poll found Obama leads 49 to 44 percent in Colorado, 48 to 42 percent in Michigan, 52 to 39 percent in Wisconsin and 54 to 37 percent in Minnesota.
The margin of error in each state was around 2.6 percentage points.
The U.S. presidential race is not determined by a simple popular vote, but instead by counting the electoral votes of the states each candidate wins.
Populous California has 55 electoral votes, while sparsely populated Montana has 3. A total of 270 is needed for victory.
Candidates recently devoted most of their campaigning to a handful of “swing” states that could line up behind either candidate.
A Quinnipiac poll last week found Obama leading McCain in the largest swing states – Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
In this week’s poll, Obama held strong leads among women, minorities, independent voters and young voters.
McCain led among men in Colorado and white voters in Michigan, where Obama’s overall lead was narrower. Roughly three-quarters of those polled said their minds were made up.


One thought on “From purplish to bluish

  1. The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided swing states, but that we shouldn’t have swing states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “swing” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 19 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.


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