Every battleground County counts


Barack now leads
in swing counties
of 6 purple states

a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
POLITICO.com’s Alexander Burns has written that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois holds key leads in six crucial counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner of the 2008 United States presidential elections in the six important swing states of Missouri, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey.
Burns also writes on October 17 that recent public polling has shown Obama winning all four states in which these county-level polls have been conducted.  He writes that the RealClearPolitics polling average has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 14 percent, Virginia by 8.1 percent, Ohio by 3.2 percent, and Missouri by 1.8 percent.
He also writes on October 21 that Obama has made new gains in two key counties that could tip the balance in the swing states of Nevada and North Carolina, also according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.  He says that the RealClearPolitics polling average has Obama leading in both states, ahead in Nevada by an average of 4.2 percent and in North Carolina by an average of 2.3 percent.
Together, according to Burns, both Nevada and North Carolina represent 20 electoral votes – as many as the key battleground state of Ohio, which decided the 2004 election.  And given Obama’s current standing in the Electoral College Votes (ECVs), where he has solid polling leads in states adding up to 264 electoral votes, winning either Nevada or North Carolina could be enough to secure the presidency.
Also, he writes that Obama is poised to expand on recent Democratic gains in three populous suburban counties, based on the Politico/InsiderAdvantage telephone surveys.  They are:
• Missouri’s St. Louis County;
• Virginia’s Prince William County; and
• Pennsylvania’s Bucks County, a politically competitive but historically Republican suburb that shares a border with Philadelphia.
Ohio’s Franklin County, home to Columbus and its suburbs, is according to the survey found to have Obama with the lead.  Other important points below:
• St. Louis County – Obama 53, McCain 37
conducted Oct. 13; error margin +/-4%
• (In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54-45 percent; suburban St. Louis County does not include Missouri’s second-largest city, St. Louis.)
• Prince William County – Obama 50, McCain 42
conducted Oct. 14; error margin +/-6%
• (Prince William is a Washington, D.C., suburb that voted for Republican President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points.)
• Bucks County – Obama 47, McCain 41
conducted Oct. 14; error margin +/-6%
• (In 2004, Kerry carried the county by a slim 51 percent to 48 percent.)
• Franklin County – Obama 45, McCain 40
conducted Oct. 13; error margin +/-6%
• (Kerry carried Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, 54-45 percent in 2004.)
• Reno, Nevada’s Washoe County – Obama 50, McCain 40
• North Carolina’s Wake County (home to Raleigh and its suburbs) – Obama 52, McCain 43
• Surveys on both counties conducted Oct. 19, error margin +/- 5%
• (Bush won both these counties in 2000 and 2004.  In his second presidential bid, Bush won Wake by a thin margin of 51-49, and bested Kerry in Washoe, 51-47. As the second-most populous counties in their respective states, Wake and Washoe are critical to McCain’s chances.)


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